Over the past year or so, many commentators in and out of the legal profession have discussed how the new boom in artificial intelligence will impact the legal industry. Some believe that certain tasks now handled by attorneys will be completed by artificial intelligence in the future, and jobs may be eliminated as a result of technological advancements. However, the legal industry is remarkably adaptive, and it is unclear if the total number of lawyers will be impacted by artificial intelligence in the short and medium term.
Many people may not realize that the legal industry has already endured a number of shocks in recent memory due to technological advances. For instance, up to about a decade ago, law firms used to employ armies of document review attorneys to assist in discovery projects. Those lawyers reviewed materials and decided if a document was responsive to a discovery demand or a subpoena and also decided if a privilege could prevent the document from being disclosed during discovery. Document review attorneys would also assist in creating a privilege log of the materials that were being withheld on the basis of a privilege or some other kind of protection.
About a decade or so ago, new technologies made the work of these document review attorneys somewhat obsolete. Predictive coding and other related methods meant that programs could sort through materials on their own and come to a determination as to whether a given document was responsive to a discovery demand or subpoena. A few attorneys might be involved in a second-line review of documents that were identified as possibly being relevant to a subpoena or document demand, but the number of lawyers involved in the document review process today is substantially less than the number employed in such tasks 10 or 15 years ago.
Even though the jobs of a large number of lawyers dried up due to technology, the number of lawyers today versus the number when document review projects abounded is relatively stable. Document review attorneys were presumably absorbed into other parts of the legal profession, and I know a few former document review attorneys who now have different roles within the industry.
As demonstrated by recent events, the legal profession is remarkably adaptive to changes. For instance, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person court appearances were largely cancelled, having a substantial impact on law firms that rely on court appearances for a substantial amount of their revenue. In addition, some law firms also rely on traveling, which was reduced because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many law firms did not miss a beat during that time and found additional billing opportunities for associates. Some rationed work, others developed new lines of business entirely. Even though law firms may have needed fewer lawyers than before the pandemic, many law firms did not reduce headcount, and the number of lawyers in the legal profession was not largely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the long term, it is difficult to predict what impact artificial intelligence can have on the legal profession. It is possible that the technological advance will be different than past changes, and some roles will be eliminated altogether because tasks can be completely performed by artificial intelligence. However, I am willing to bet that the number of lawyers in the legal industry is not going to change in the short-to-medium term due to advances in artificial intelligence. The legal profession has shown it can absorb changes in technology, and it is possible that this new technology will adjust the types of roles lawyers have without substantially reducing headcount.
Jordan Rothman is a partner of The Rothman Law Firm, a full-service New York and New Jersey law firm. He is also the founder of Student Debt Diaries, a website discussing how he paid off his student loans. You can reach Jordan through email at jordan@rothman.law.
