The legal job market has been in a state of flux since the latter half of the first decade of the 21st century. Between the faltering economy caused by the 2008 recession, globalization, increased law school class sizes and enrollment, and emerging technologies that level the playing field between small and large law firms, the number of legal jobs have declined while competition for clients has increased.
While the causes are numerous and debateable, the statistics on the effects of these changes on legal job prospects, both entry-level and above, are indisputable. The job market is changing and the more you know about it, the better positioned you’ll be to take advantage of it.
First, let’s consider law school admissions policies and their effect on the job market. For starters, did you know that in the 2015-2016 academic year, law school enrollment fell 5 percent from 2014, but the number of matriculating first-year students fell by just 2 percent? During that same timeframe, there were more law school applicants, but they applied to fewer schools.
Also of interest is the drop in the number of law school graduates. The number of graduates fell 9.2%, from 43,832 in 2014 to 39,817 in 2015. And, the number of bar-required jobs available also fell during that same timeframe, from 26,248 in 2014 to 23,993 in 2015, representing a significant decline of 2,255 jobs, or 8.6% of entry-level legal jobs. Even so, despite this decline, according to ABA employment statistics for the Class of 2015, the percentage of graduates holding full-time, long-term jobs requiring bar passage edged up ever so slightly, from 59.9% in 2014 to 60.3% in 2015.
Meanwhile, competition for legal jobs continued to increase across the board. That’s why the Bureau of Labor Statistics lawyer-job estimate declined considerably over a two-year period. In 2014, the Bureau predicted that there would be 74,800 new lawyer jobs through 2022. But now the Bureau estimates that between 2014 and 2024, the number of lawyer positions will grow from 778,700 to 822,500, adding just 43,800 jobs, representing a 41 percent reduction in the number of predicted legal jobs.
So what to do with this information? Take stock of the legal job market and position yourself to take advantage of these changes. For example, consider including one of the areas of practice predicted to grow in 2015 into your repertoire: corporate, real estate, litigation, IP patent, and tax.
You might also consider relocating to states with the highest employment levels for lawyers in 2015:
- California (72, 790)
- New York (72,100)
- Florida (46,770)
- Texas (41,000)
- District of Columbia (30,690)
And last, but certainly not least, consider the benefits of hanging your own shingle. As you can see from the infographic below, the number of law school graduates hanging their shingle has increased dramatically in recent years, as has the number of lawyers working for firms with less than 10 attorneys.
For more interesting statistics about law school and legal job prospects in 2015, make sure to check out the full infographic below. The times are most certainly changing, but it’s not necessarily a bad thing. The legal job market is shifting and astute lawyers will likewise pivot and take advantage of the many opportunities presented by the changes in the legal industry.
Nicole Black is a Rochester, New York attorney and the Legal Technology Evangelist at MyCase, web-based law practice management software. She’s been blogging since 2005, has written a weekly column for the Daily Record since 2007, is the author of Cloud Computing for Lawyers, co-authors Social Media for Lawyers: the Next Frontier, and co-authors Criminal Law in New York. She’s easily distracted by the potential of bright and shiny tech gadgets, along with good food and wine. You can follow her on Twitter at@nikiblack and she can be reached at [email protected].
